How demand for oil will change by 2030
GLOBAL demand for oil is set to rise from 84.7m barrels per day (bpd) in 2008 to 105m bpd in 2030, says the International Energy Agency in its latest annual energy report. Transport will account for 97% of this increase as rising numbers of cars hit the roads of the developing world. Demand from these countries will overtake that of the industrialised OECD nations by 2030. By then, America, Japan and Europe will be using less oil than in 1980. But the thirst for oil will balloon in Asia—and in India and China in particular—where demand is predicted to rise by as much as 400% compared with 2008.
Nov 10th 2009
From Economist.com
Conserv-A-Store says the above information elicited some good blog replys on the Economist blog post.
Below are some we like:
As with all such projections, it begs the question “Based on what assumptions?” Based on current technology, or the current mix of cars around the world? 20 years is a long time, particularly in those developing economies. A breakthrough in battery technology in 2010 could result in a widespread switch to electric vehicles by 2015 in new vehicles purchased, which in China and India is all that matters. Even evolutionary progress will lead to a lot of electric vehicles by 2030, if not because the technology is better, then because governments demand it. Trucks (lorries) are a trickier problem, but not insurmountable in 20 years. I find this projection dubious.
This is a great chart, but if this is the kind of forecasting our economists and energy analysts are making, then it doesn’t seem like there’s much hope for addressing climate change. Until companies start lobbying government leaders for a systematic and gradually increasing carbon price to move the world away from fossil fuels we are going to be in deep trouble. Do we even have this much oil in known fields and reserves? More importantly (and more relevent to the challenge of climate change), are we going to have biofuels from algae by 2030? Or, are we going to be using electric cars powered by 4th generation nuclear by then? Unless people start moving away from the earlier assumption that fossil fuels are the energy foundation for the once and future world economy, we are all going to be looking at higher sea levels in the next few centuries or decades.
This is naive in the extreme: even the most “optimistic” peak-oil models have it peaking in 2030. Once again forcasters treat the supply side as unlimited; they have as much credibility as fortune tellers.
And don’t hold out for unconventional oil: the rate at which the tar sands in Alberta can be processed also has a limit, and it’s nothing that would approach the required rate to maintain current global production.
Conserv-A-Store intends to continue to focus on oil demand and supply and how accurate and true the figures can be given the oft times murky sources of reporting data such as how much do the Saudis really have left and the inventory levels claimed by the large non Saudi oil and gas companies
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